{"id":29074,"date":"2022-08-29T12:42:08","date_gmt":"2022-08-29T16:42:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/realta.ca\/?p=26676"},"modified":"2023-09-19T11:07:51","modified_gmt":"2023-09-19T15:07:51","slug":"vendors-still-have-the-upper-hand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/equipegingras.ca\/en\/vendors-still-have-the-upper-hand\/","title":{"rendered":"Vendors still have the upper hand"},"content":{"rendered":"

Some newspapers are already saying that the Quebec housing market has rebalanced in recent months. It is true that sales have slowed down considerably since the abrupt rise in interest rates in the spring. At the same time, the number of properties for sale is picking up, albeit timidly. But make no mistake: at the moment, in general, the supply of properties for sale is still well below the demand, so sellers still have the upper hand in negotiations.<\/p>\n

To measure market conditions, i.e., whether the resale market is balanced, buyer-friendly or seller-friendly, analysts usually use the listing-to-sale ratio as the supply-to-demand ratio. Of course, the higher the ratio, the more advantage the buyer has in negotiations, and the lower the ratio, the more advantage the sellers have. A balanced market is generally associated with a ratio between 8 and 10.<\/p>\n

However, after reaching an all-time low of 2.3 in Quebec at the end of 2021, the listing-to-sale ratio rose to 3.6 last July[1]. This normally indicates a market where sellers are still in a strong position when negotiating prices. And in fact, this is still what we are seeing. Multiple offers are becoming rarer, but they haven’t disappeared. Fewer properties are selling above asking price, but it’s still common. Buyers have a little more room to negotiate, but there is still very little chance of a seller cutting their price.<\/p>\n

Link between price and market conditions<\/p>\n

As you might expect, when market conditions favor sellers (listing-to-sale ratio < 8), prices normally rise sharply; when conditions are balanced (listing-to-sale ratio between 8 and 10), prices rise only moderately; and when conditions favor buyers (listing-to-sale ratio > 10), prices barely increase or even decrease.<\/p>\n

The chart below shows the relationship between the listing-to-sale ratio and price growth (at an annual rate) over the past 18 months in Quebec.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Le mouvement rapide des taux hypoth\u00e9caires entra\u00eene des distorsions<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bien que les donn\u00e9es laissent assez bien voir cette relation inverse entre le ratio inscriptions\/vente et la croissance des prix, le mouvement brusque des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat a sans doute brouill\u00e9 les cartes, puisque l\u2019amplitude des variations de prix appara\u00eet anormalement \u00e9lev\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

Nous venons de vivre un contexte bien particulier. \u00c0 la suite de la pand\u00e9mie de COVID, les taux hypoth\u00e9caires cinq ans ont rapidement diminu\u00e9 pour atteindre un creux historique au printemps 2021. On pouvait alors obtenir une hypoth\u00e8que pour un terme de cinq ans \u00e0 moins de 2 %. Cela n\u2019a pas seulement stimul\u00e9 le nombre de transactions, cela a aussi consid\u00e9rablement \u00ab gonfl\u00e9 \u00bb le pouvoir d\u2019achat des emprunteurs, ce qui en retour a aliment\u00e9 une hausse de prix extraordinaire, qui a culmin\u00e9 \u00e0 32,6 % en avril 2021, du jamais vu, il va sans dire. \u00c0 peine quelques mois plus tard, en raison d\u2019une inflation galopante, les taux hypoth\u00e9caires 5 ans ont plus que doubl\u00e9. Au moment d\u2019\u00e9crire ces lignes, les taux n\u00e9goci\u00e9s se situaient aux alentours de 5 %, soit leur niveau le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 en 13 ans. Cela est venu brusquement amputer le pouvoir d\u2019achat des emprunteurs. Dans ce contexte, la croissance des prix est en train de chuter drastiquement. En donn\u00e9es d\u00e9saisonnalis\u00e9es[2]<\/sup><\/a>, qui permettent de comparer des mois cons\u00e9cutifs entre eux, le prix moyen a m\u00eame l\u00e9g\u00e8rement recul\u00e9 (-4,6 %) entre avril et juillet[3]<\/sup><\/a>. Or, des prix qui baissent dans un march\u00e9 favorable aux vendeurs semble d\u00e9fier la logique. Mais force est de constater que cela est possible. La p\u00e9riode d\u2019exub\u00e9rance fait maintenant place \u00e0 une p\u00e9riode de sobri\u00e9t\u00e9. Il n\u2019en demeure pas moins que, pour le moment, le march\u00e9 est bel et bien encore \u00e0 la faveur des vendeurs.<\/p>\n

\n

[1]<\/sup><\/a> Corresponds to the “number of inventory months” in seasonally adjusted data (source: ACI).<\/p>\n

[2]<\/sup><\/a> Seasonally adjusted data is data that has been “corrected” to eliminate seasonal effects, i.e. fluctuations that usually occur at the same time each year.<\/p>\n

[3]<\/sup><\/a> Change in the average price of properties in Quebec, all categories combined, seasonally adjusted (source : ACI)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Some newspapers are already saying that the Quebec housing market has rebalanced in recent months. It is true that sales have slowed down considerably since the abrupt rise in interest rates in the spring. At the same time, the number of properties for sale is picking up, albeit timidly. But make no mistake: at the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":29626,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[143],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/equipegingras.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29074"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/equipegingras.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/equipegingras.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/equipegingras.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/equipegingras.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29074"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/equipegingras.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29074\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29625,"href":"https:\/\/equipegingras.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29074\/revisions\/29625"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/equipegingras.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29626"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/equipegingras.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29074"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/equipegingras.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29074"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/equipegingras.ca\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29074"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}